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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Lansdown 5 v Redland Herrings (Wed 23 Oct 2024)Match played between Dave Major (home) and John Holcombe (away).Match won by Dave Major. Result: 15-7,15-13,15-4:13-15,15-10,15-8,15-13:13-15,12-15,15-10,15-13,13-15:15-10,15-5,12-15,15-9:15-7,16-14,15-6. Starting level for Dave Major: 1,184, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for John Holcombe: 1,072, level confidence: 23%. Dave Major to win as he is currently playing 10% better than John Holcombe. Dave Major won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Major played 88% better than John Holcombe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Major actually played at a level of 1,543 and John Holcombe at a level of 823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Major changes to +9.3% and John Holcombe changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Major becomes +5.7% and for John Holcombe becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Dave Major is +4.3% and for John Holcombe is -10.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that John Holcombe is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Major: 84%, John Holcombe: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Major: 65%, John Holcombe: 37%. A final adjustment of +2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Major: 1,233, level confidence: 65%. Final level for John Holcombe: 1,018, level confidence: 37%. Notes
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