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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Westbury David Lloyd Warriors v Workout Harbourside 5 (Wed 25 Sep 2024)Match played between Tom Yates (home) and Julian Winterscheidt (away).Match won by Julian Winterscheidt. Result: 10-15,8-15,10-15. Starting level for Tom Yates: 696, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Julian Winterscheidt: 826, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Julian Winterscheidt to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Tom Yates. Julian Winterscheidt won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Winterscheidt played 61% better than Tom Yates in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Winterscheidt actually played at a level of 961 and Tom Yates at a level of 598. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Winterscheidt changes to +15% and Tom Yates changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Winterscheidt becomes +8.8% and for Tom Yates becomes -8.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Julian Winterscheidt is +6.6% and for Tom Yates is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Yates is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Winterscheidt: 90%, Tom Yates: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Winterscheidt: 77%, Tom Yates: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom Yates: 675, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Julian Winterscheidt: 881, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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