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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K4 v Redland Herrings (Thu 07 Nov 2024)Match played between George Sanderson (home) and John Holcombe (away).Match won by George Sanderson. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-2:15-12,15-2,13-15,15-5:15-9,15-8,15-4:15-5,15-1,15-10:9-15,9-15,9-15. Starting level for George Sanderson: 1,306, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for John Holcombe: 1,018, level confidence: 35%. George Sanderson to win as he is currently playing 28% better than John Holcombe. George Sanderson won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Sanderson played 105% better than John Holcombe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Sanderson actually played at a level of 1,649 and John Holcombe at a level of 806. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Sanderson changes to +10.1% and John Holcombe changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Sanderson becomes +5.8% and for John Holcombe becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for George Sanderson is +4.4% and for John Holcombe is -9.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that John Holcombe is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Sanderson: 89%, John Holcombe: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Sanderson: 70%, John Holcombe: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Sanderson: 1,361, level confidence: 70%. Final level for John Holcombe: 968, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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