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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 23 Oct 2024)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-9,3-11,11-7,9-11,6-11. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,016, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,941, level confidence: 64%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Cameron Haddow. Cameron Haddow won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 13% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 8,486 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 7,501. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +6.1% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +2.4% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -2.6%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is +1.6% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 80%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 75%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,862, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 8,065, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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