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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 25 Sep 2024)Match played between Harvey Von Biel (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Harvey Von Biel. Result: 12-10,11-2,11-7. Starting level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,681, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,128, level confidence: 10%. Harvey Von Biel to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Harvey Von Biel won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harvey Von Biel played 79% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harvey Von Biel actually played at a level of 9,898 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 5,531. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel changes to +4.8% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel becomes +2% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -7.7%. Given Harvey Von Biel's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel is +1.4% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -5.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harvey Von Biel: 76%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harvey Von Biel: 59%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 25%. A final adjustment of -3.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,654, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,477, level confidence: 25%. Notes
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