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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 30 Oct 2024)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Harvey Von Biel (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 1-11,11-4,11-3,11-9. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,862, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,435, level confidence: 66%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Harvey Von Biel. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 25% better than Harvey Von Biel in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 8,558 and Harvey Von Biel at a level of 6,830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +7.6% and Harvey Von Biel changes to -8.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +2.7% and for Harvey Von Biel becomes -3.1%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.8% has been applied to his level change. Given Harvey Von Biel's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +1.9% and for Harvey Von Biel is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 86%, Harvey Von Biel: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 79%, Harvey Von Biel: 74%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,048, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,276, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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