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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v UWE Bristol Buccaneers (Wed 06 Nov 2024)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Praviin Jeeva (away).Match won by Praviin Jeeva. Result: 4-11,7-11,7-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 7,661, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Praviin Jeeva: 10,725, level confidence: 63%. Praviin Jeeva to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Andy Ewings. Praviin Jeeva won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Praviin Jeeva played 83% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Praviin Jeeva actually played at a level of 12,273 and Andy Ewings at a level of 6,695. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva changes to +12% and Andy Ewings changes to -10.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva becomes +3.6% and for Andy Ewings becomes -3.6%. Given Praviin Jeeva's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva is +2.3% and for Andy Ewings is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Praviin Jeeva: 80%, Andy Ewings: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Praviin Jeeva: 69%, Andy Ewings: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,450, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Praviin Jeeva: 10,889, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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