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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Tue 15 Oct 2024)Match played between Oli Harding (home) and Ollie Beaumont (away).Match won by Oli Harding. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-5. Starting level for Oli Harding: 5,951, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Ollie Beaumont: 2,233, level confidence: 56%. Oli Harding to win as he is currently playing 167% better than Ollie Beaumont. Oli Harding won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oli Harding played 83% better than Ollie Beaumont in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oli Harding was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,541 and 5,951 without affecting his level. In this case, Oli Harding played at level 4,398 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Oli Harding would normally have been playing at level 4,725 (based on typical behaviour), Ollie Beaumont played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oli Harding changes to 0% and Ollie Beaumont changes to +4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oli Harding becomes 0% and for Ollie Beaumont becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Oli Harding is 0% and for Ollie Beaumont is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oli Harding: 85%, Ollie Beaumont: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oli Harding: 70%, Ollie Beaumont: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oli Harding: 5,942, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Ollie Beaumont: 2,273, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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