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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 09 Oct 2024)Match played between Tim Arthur (home) and Jeremy Harris (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 7-11,9-11,4-11:6-11,11-9,1-11,6-11:11-6,6-11,10-12,6-11:10-12,12-10,11-8,11-7:11-9,11-7,11-13,11-8. Starting level for Tim Arthur: 10,286, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 12,329, level confidence: 39%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Tim Arthur. Jeremy Harris won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 65% better than Tim Arthur in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Harris actually played at a level of 14,465 and Tim Arthur at a level of 8,767. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to +16% and Tim Arthur changes to -7.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes +4.3% and for Tim Arthur becomes -2.7%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Tim Arthur's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is +2.6% and for Tim Arthur is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 62%, Tim Arthur: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 53%, Tim Arthur: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Arthur: 10,100, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 12,632, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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