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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 09 Oct 2024)Match played between George Keeble (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-6,6-11,10-12,6-11. Starting level for George Keeble: 5,653, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,610, level confidence: 60%. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 35% better than George Keeble. Cameron Haddow won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 24% better than George Keeble in this match. As Cameron Haddow has played below his allowed range at 7,066, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Cameron Haddow would normally have been playing at level 7,396 (based on typical behaviour), George Keeble played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to -0.9% and George Keeble changes to +2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes -0.5% and for George Keeble becomes +1.1%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.9% has been applied to his level change. Given George Keeble's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is -0.3% and for George Keeble is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 77%, George Keeble: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 74%, George Keeble: 82%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Keeble: 5,723, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,580, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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