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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 13 Nov 2024)Match played between Cameron Haddow (home) and Harvey Von Biel (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-4. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 8,065, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,042, level confidence: 63%. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Harvey Von Biel. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 136% better than Harvey Von Biel in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 11,570 and Harvey Von Biel at a level of 4,909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +37% and Harvey Von Biel changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +9.5% and for Harvey Von Biel becomes -10.5%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Harvey Von Biel's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is +6.4% and for Harvey Von Biel is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harvey Von Biel is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 83%, Harvey Von Biel: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 58%, Harvey Von Biel: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 8,568, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Harvey Von Biel: 6,697, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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