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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 13 Nov 2024)Match played between Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (home) and George Keeble (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 11-8,9-11,4-11,14-12,11-4. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 7,567, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for George Keeble: 5,705, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 33% better than George Keeble. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 9% better than George Keeble in this match. As Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe has played below his allowed range at 6,666, his level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe would normally have been playing at level 7,373 (based on typical behaviour), George Keeble played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 7.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -6.1% and George Keeble changes to +6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -2.4% and for George Keeble becomes +2.5%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change. Given George Keeble's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -1.6% and for George Keeble is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 82%, George Keeble: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 74%, George Keeble: 84%. A final adjustment of -1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 7,425, level confidence: 74%. Final level for George Keeble: 5,645, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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