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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: UWE Bristol Buccaneers v University of Bath 1 (Wed 13 Nov 2024)Match played between Praviin Jeeva (home) and Anson Wong (away).Match won by Praviin Jeeva. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-4:11-1,11-4,11-5:11-6,11-7,11-3:7-11,5-11,12-10,12-10,10-12:11-7,13-11,11-4. Starting level for Praviin Jeeva: 10,889, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Anson Wong: 6,015, level confidence: 53%. Praviin Jeeva to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Anson Wong. Praviin Jeeva won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Praviin Jeeva played 106% better than Anson Wong in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Praviin Jeeva actually played at a level of 11,623 and Anson Wong at a level of 5,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva changes to +3.6% and Anson Wong changes to -5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva becomes +1.6% and for Anson Wong becomes -2.2%. Given Praviin Jeeva's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Praviin Jeeva is +1% and for Anson Wong is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Praviin Jeeva: 86%, Anson Wong: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Praviin Jeeva: 80%, Anson Wong: 68%. A final adjustment of +1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Praviin Jeeva: 11,361, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,949, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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