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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: UWE Bristol Buccaneers v University of Bath 1 (Wed 13 Nov 2024)Match played between Kanhav Nanavati (home) and Yuv Pahuja (away).Match won by Kanhav Nanavati. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-5. Starting level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,113, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Yuv Pahuja: 3,491, level confidence: 58%. Kanhav Nanavati to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Yuv Pahuja. Kanhav Nanavati won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kanhav Nanavati played 230% better than Yuv Pahuja in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kanhav Nanavati actually played at a level of 10,794 and Yuv Pahuja at a level of 3,271. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati changes to +2.2% and Yuv Pahuja changes to -3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati becomes +1.1% and for Yuv Pahuja becomes -2.3%. Given Kanhav Nanavati's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati is +0.7% and for Yuv Pahuja is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kanhav Nanavati: 78%, Yuv Pahuja: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kanhav Nanavati: 73%, Yuv Pahuja: 71%. A final adjustment of +2.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,322, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Yuv Pahuja: 3,535, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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