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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 16 Oct 2024)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Anson Wong (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-4:7-11,11-3,11-3,11-5:11-5,11-0,11-2:7-11,11-7,11-8,11-5:11-6,11-2,11-4. Starting level for Mark Radley: 14,476, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,634, level confidence: 50%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 157% better than Anson Wong. Mark Radley won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 94% better than Anson Wong in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Radley was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,892 and 14,476 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Radley played at level 11,291 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 11,657 (based on typical behaviour), Anson Wong played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to 0% and Anson Wong changes to +2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes 0% and for Anson Wong becomes +1.1%. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Anson Wong is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 92%, Anson Wong: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 80%, Anson Wong: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 14,454, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,673, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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