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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 16 Oct 2024)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 7-11,11-3,11-3,11-5. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 7,672, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,862, level confidence: 40%. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Andy Ewings won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 82% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 44% better than Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan in this match. In this case, Andy Ewings played at level 7,103 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Ewings would normally have been playing at level 7,219 (based on typical behaviour), Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to 0% and Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes 0% and for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is 0% and for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 80%, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 76%, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,661, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,883, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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