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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 16 Oct 2024)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Matthew Robins (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-2. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,482, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Matthew Robins: 3,203, level confidence: 57%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Matthew Robins. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 371% better than Matthew Robins in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 9,893 and Matthew Robins at a level of 2,099. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +25% and Matthew Robins changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +7.2% and for Matthew Robins becomes -11%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +5.1% and for Matthew Robins is -8.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matthew Robins is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 88%, Matthew Robins: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 57%, Matthew Robins: 49%. A final adjustment of +9.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,016, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Matthew Robins: 3,103, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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