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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 20 Nov 2024)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Callie Smith (away).Match won by Callie Smith. Result: 4-11,9-11,10-12:8-11,4-11,12-10,5-11:3-11,6-11,6-11:4-11,8-11,9-11:9-11,5-11,6-11. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,883, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Callie Smith: 8,653, level confidence: 47%. Callie Smith to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Callie Smith won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callie Smith played 50% better than Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan in this match. In this case, Callie Smith played at level 7,611 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Callie Smith would normally have been playing at level 7,898 (based on typical behaviour), Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callie Smith changes to 0% and Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callie Smith becomes 0% and for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Callie Smith is 0% and for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callie Smith: 68%, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callie Smith: 63%, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 66%. A final adjustment of +6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,966, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Callie Smith: 9,670, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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