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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 20 Nov 2024)Match played between Ollie Beaumont (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 3-11,6-11,6-11. Starting level for Ollie Beaumont: 2,495, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,840, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 214% better than Ollie Beaumont. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 120% better than Ollie Beaumont in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,987 and 7,840 without affecting his level. In this case, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played at level 5,645 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles would normally have been playing at level 5,805 (based on typical behaviour), Ollie Beaumont played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to 0% and Ollie Beaumont changes to +1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes 0% and for Ollie Beaumont becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is 0% and for Ollie Beaumont is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 85%, Ollie Beaumont: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 71%, Ollie Beaumont: 76%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ollie Beaumont: 2,513, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,028, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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