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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Thornbury A v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 23 Oct 2024)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Zacheus Yeo (away).Match won by Bradley Clare. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-7:11-1,4-11,5-11,7-11:11-7,11-7,4-11,7-11,11-8:11-9,10-12,11-9,6-11,8-11:13-11,11-5,8-11,11-7. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 8,720, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Zacheus Yeo: 5,999, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Bradley Clare to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Zacheus Yeo. Bradley Clare won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bradley Clare played 55% better than Zacheus Yeo in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bradley Clare actually played at a level of 8,996 and Zacheus Yeo at a level of 5,815. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bradley Clare changes to +2.6% and Zacheus Yeo changes to -2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bradley Clare becomes +1.3% and for Zacheus Yeo becomes -1.3%. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Zacheus Yeo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Bradley Clare is +0.9% and for Zacheus Yeo is -0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bradley Clare: 80%, Zacheus Yeo: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bradley Clare: 78%, Zacheus Yeo: 82%. A final adjustment of +4.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 8,822, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Zacheus Yeo: 6,419, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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