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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 2 v BAWA A (Wed 18 Sep 2024)Match played between Charlie Galton (home) and Richard Colman (away).Match won by Richard Colman. Result: 7-11,2-11,5-11:11-4,8-11,9-11,11-4,11-7:11-7,7-11,11-6,11-9:11-5,11-13,12-10,9-11,12-10:8-11,9-11,12-10,8-11. Starting level for Charlie Galton: 3,690, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,775, level confidence: 55%. Richard Colman to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Charlie Galton. Richard Colman won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Colman played 136% better than Charlie Galton in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Colman actually played at a level of 7,087 and Charlie Galton at a level of 3,007. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Colman changes to +17% and Charlie Galton changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Colman becomes +5.5% and for Charlie Galton becomes -6.4%. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Richard Colman is +4% and for Charlie Galton is -4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Colman: 74%, Charlie Galton: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Colman: 60%, Charlie Galton: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Galton: 3,521, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,973, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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