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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v Lansdown 2 (Wed 23 Oct 2024)Match played between Richard Colman (home) and Adam Conisbee (away).Match won by Richard Colman. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-6,11-9:11-9,6-11,11-8,11-5:9-11,9-11,9-11:11-8,4-11,13-11,8-11,9-11:8-11,11-5,11-2,11-4. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,250, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam Conisbee: 3,518, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Richard Colman to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Adam Conisbee. Richard Colman won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Colman played 23% better than Adam Conisbee in this match. As Richard Colman has played below his allowed range at 4,514, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Colman would normally have been playing at level 5,002 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Conisbee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Colman changes to -3.5% and Adam Conisbee changes to +5.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Colman becomes -1.9% and for Adam Conisbee becomes +2.8%. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Richard Colman is -1.4% and for Adam Conisbee is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Colman: 86%, Adam Conisbee: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Colman: 78%, Adam Conisbee: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,169, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Adam Conisbee: 3,585, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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