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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 31 Oct 2024)Match played between Ian Doherty (home) and Zacheus Yeo (away).Match won by Zacheus Yeo. Result: 8-11,4-11,1-11:11-8,11-8,11-7:11-7,11-5,13-11:11-8,11-8,11-8:11-3,11-6,11-4. Starting level for Ian Doherty: 2,855, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Zacheus Yeo: 6,419, level confidence: 61%. Zacheus Yeo to win as he is currently playing 125% better than Ian Doherty. Zacheus Yeo won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zacheus Yeo played 154% better than Ian Doherty in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zacheus Yeo actually played at a level of 6,821 and Ian Doherty at a level of 2,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zacheus Yeo changes to +3.9% and Ian Doherty changes to -3.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zacheus Yeo becomes +1.9% and for Ian Doherty becomes -2.1%. Given Zacheus Yeo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Zacheus Yeo is +1.3% and for Ian Doherty is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zacheus Yeo: 78%, Ian Doherty: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zacheus Yeo: 73%, Ian Doherty: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Doherty: 2,801, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Zacheus Yeo: 6,487, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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