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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 31 Oct 2024)Match played between Paul Hockett (home) and Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov (away).Match won by Paul Hockett. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Paul Hockett: 3,889, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov: 2,384, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Paul Hockett to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov. Paul Hockett won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hockett played 47% better than Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov in this match. In this case, Paul Hockett played at level 3,570 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Hockett would normally have been playing at level 3,630 (based on typical behaviour), Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hockett changes to 0% and Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hockett becomes 0% and for Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Paul Hockett is 0% and for Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hockett: 66%, Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hockett: 63%, Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov: 89%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Hockett: 3,883, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Andrei 'Mayonnaise' Pankratov: 2,434, level confidence: 89%. Notes
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