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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Weston Shankers v University of Bath 2 (Wed 06 Nov 2024)Match played between Mark Bishop (home) and Thomas Timmons (away).Match won by Mark Bishop. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-12. Starting level for Mark Bishop: 2,974, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Thomas Timmons: 1,584, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Mark Bishop to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Thomas Timmons. Mark Bishop won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Bishop played 45% better than Thomas Timmons in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Bishop was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,325 and 2,974 without affecting his level. As Mark Bishop has played below his allowed range at 2,314, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Bishop would normally have been playing at level 2,666 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas Timmons played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 5.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Bishop changes to -0.4% and Thomas Timmons changes to +5.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Bishop becomes -0.2% and for Thomas Timmons becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Mark Bishop is 0% and for Thomas Timmons is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Bishop: 84%, Thomas Timmons: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Bishop: 74%, Thomas Timmons: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Bishop: 2,964, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Thomas Timmons: 1,622, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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