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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: University of Bath 4 v Weston Slappers (Wed 06 Nov 2024)Match played between Kalvin Biggs (home) and Chris French (away).Match won by Chris French. Result: 14-16,9-15,6-15. Starting level for Kalvin Biggs: 433, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Chris French: 814, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Chris French to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Kalvin Biggs. Chris French won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris French played 57% better than Kalvin Biggs in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris French was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 636 and 814 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris French played at level 705 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris French would normally have been playing at level 729 (based on typical behaviour), Kalvin Biggs played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris French changes to 0% and Kalvin Biggs changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris French becomes 0% and for Kalvin Biggs becomes +2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Chris French is 0% and for Kalvin Biggs is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris French: 89%, Kalvin Biggs: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris French: 81%, Kalvin Biggs: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kalvin Biggs: 440, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Chris French: 813, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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