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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: David Lloyd C v University of Bristol Fresh (Tue 15 Oct 2024)Match played between Jon Fairclough (home) and Ben 'Mothman' Doyle (away).Match won by Ben 'Mothman' Doyle. Result: 11-15,6-15,4-15. Starting level for Jon Fairclough: 344, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Ben 'Mothman' Doyle: 519, level confidence: 43%. Ben 'Mothman' Doyle to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Jon Fairclough. Ben 'Mothman' Doyle won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Mothman' Doyle played 114% better than Jon Fairclough in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben 'Mothman' Doyle actually played at a level of 619 and Jon Fairclough at a level of 289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Mothman' Doyle changes to +15% and Jon Fairclough changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Mothman' Doyle becomes +8.9% and for Jon Fairclough becomes -9.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Ben 'Mothman' Doyle is +6.7% and for Jon Fairclough is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Fairclough is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Mothman' Doyle: 66%, Jon Fairclough: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Mothman' Doyle: 55%, Jon Fairclough: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jon Fairclough: 327, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Ben 'Mothman' Doyle: 553, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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