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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 08 Mar 2012)Match played between Charlotte Weldrake (home) and Jenny Sharpe (away).Match won by Charlotte Weldrake. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Charlotte Weldrake: 379, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Jenny Sharpe: 201, level confidence: 37%. Charlotte Weldrake to win as she is currently playing 89% better than Jenny Sharpe. Charlotte Weldrake won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlotte Weldrake played 278% better than Jenny Sharpe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlotte Weldrake actually played at a level of 537 and Jenny Sharpe at a level of 142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake changes to +13% and Jenny Sharpe changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake becomes +7.9% and for Jenny Sharpe becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake is +5.9% and for Jenny Sharpe is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jenny Sharpe is limited to -7.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlotte Weldrake: 91%, Jenny Sharpe: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlotte Weldrake: 64%, Jenny Sharpe: 43%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlotte Weldrake: 401, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Jenny Sharpe: 186, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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