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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Weston (Thu 09 Feb 2012)Match played between Jenny Sharpe (home) and Quita Colston (away).Match won by Quita Colston. Result: 3-9,3-9,9-7,6-9. Starting level for Jenny Sharpe: 188, level confidence: 37%. Starting level for Quita Colston: 497, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Quita Colston to win as she is currently playing 164% better than Jenny Sharpe. Quita Colston won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Quita Colston played 26% better than Jenny Sharpe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Quita Colston was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 298 and 497 without affecting her level. As Quita Colston has played below her allowed range at 266, her level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Quita Colston would normally have been playing at level 396 (based on typical behaviour), Jenny Sharpe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Quita Colston changes to -3.5% and Jenny Sharpe changes to +17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Quita Colston becomes -3.3% and for Jenny Sharpe becomes +9.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Quita Colston is -2.5% and for Jenny Sharpe is +7.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Quita Colston: 86%, Jenny Sharpe: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Quita Colston: 59%, Jenny Sharpe: 42%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jenny Sharpe: 201, level confidence: 42%. Final level for Quita Colston: 484, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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