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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Weston v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 22 Mar 2012)Match played between Caroline Taylor (home) and Jenny Sharpe (away).Match won by Caroline Taylor. Result: 9-1,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Caroline Taylor: 623, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Jenny Sharpe: 186, level confidence: 41%. Caroline Taylor to win as she is currently playing 235% better than Jenny Sharpe. Caroline Taylor won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Caroline Taylor played 134% better than Jenny Sharpe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Caroline Taylor was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 296 and 623 without affecting her level. In this case, Caroline Taylor played at level 441 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Caroline Taylor would normally have been playing at level 448 (based on typical behaviour), Jenny Sharpe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Caroline Taylor changes to 0% and Jenny Sharpe changes to +0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Caroline Taylor becomes 0% and for Jenny Sharpe becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Caroline Taylor is 0% and for Jenny Sharpe is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Caroline Taylor: 94%, Jenny Sharpe: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Caroline Taylor: 78%, Jenny Sharpe: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Caroline Taylor: 622, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Jenny Sharpe: 187, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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