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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 22 Mar 2012)Match played between Emma Bassett (home) and Ruth Drysdale (away).Match won by Ruth Drysdale. Result: 0-9,3-9,3-9. Starting level for Emma Bassett: 658, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 678, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Ruth Drysdale to win as she is currently playing 3% better than Emma Bassett. Ruth Drysdale won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ruth Drysdale played 118% better than Emma Bassett in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ruth Drysdale actually played at a level of 986 and Emma Bassett at a level of 452. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale changes to +5.9% and Emma Bassett changes to -45%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale becomes +4.4% and for Emma Bassett becomes -22%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale is +3.3% and for Emma Bassett is -16%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Bassett is limited to -11% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ruth Drysdale: 87%, Emma Bassett: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ruth Drysdale: 60%, Emma Bassett: 22%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Bassett: 591, level confidence: 22%. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 700, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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