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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Redwood v Thornbury (Thu 19 Jan 2012)Match played between Jane Tutton (home) and Emma Neudegg (away).Match won by Jane Tutton. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-6. Starting level for Jane Tutton: 518, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Emma Neudegg: 244, level confidence: 10%. Jane Tutton to win as she is currently playing 112% better than Emma Neudegg. Jane Tutton won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jane Tutton played 76% better than Emma Neudegg in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jane Tutton was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 369 and 518 without affecting her level. In this case, Jane Tutton played at level 437 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jane Tutton would normally have been playing at level 446 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Neudegg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jane Tutton changes to 0% and Emma Neudegg changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jane Tutton becomes 0% and for Emma Neudegg becomes +1.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Jane Tutton is 0% and for Emma Neudegg is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jane Tutton: 85%, Emma Neudegg: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jane Tutton: 77%, Emma Neudegg: 29%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jane Tutton: 517, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Emma Neudegg: 246, level confidence: 29%. Notes
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