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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Redland Winter Jaguars v Thornbury (Thu 08 Mar 2012)Match played between Anita Edson (home) and Ruth Hughes (away).Match won by Anita Edson. Result: 9-7,9-1,9-3. Starting level for Anita Edson: 549, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Ruth Hughes: 269, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Anita Edson to win as she is currently playing 104% better than Ruth Hughes. Anita Edson won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anita Edson played 57% better than Ruth Hughes in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anita Edson was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 402 and 549 without affecting her level. In this case, Anita Edson played at level 449 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anita Edson would normally have been playing at level 478 (based on typical behaviour), Ruth Hughes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anita Edson changes to 0% and Ruth Hughes changes to +4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anita Edson becomes 0% and for Ruth Hughes becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Anita Edson is 0% and for Ruth Hughes is +2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anita Edson: 85%, Ruth Hughes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anita Edson: 74%, Ruth Hughes: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anita Edson: 548, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Ruth Hughes: 276, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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