|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Weston A v Redwood (Thu 26 Jan 2012)Match played between Sarah Farrant (home) and Indira Barker (away).Match won by Indira Barker. Result: 2-9,0-9,3-9. Starting level for Sarah Farrant: 184, level confidence: 30%. Starting level for Indira Barker: 928, level confidence: 55%. Indira Barker to win as she is currently playing 404% better than Sarah Farrant. Indira Barker won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Indira Barker played 134% better than Sarah Farrant in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Indira Barker was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 267 and 928 without affecting her level. In this case, Indira Barker played at level 479 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Indira Barker would normally have been playing at level 533 (based on typical behaviour), Sarah Farrant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Indira Barker changes to 0% and Sarah Farrant changes to +4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Indira Barker becomes 0% and for Sarah Farrant becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2012' so the adjustment for Indira Barker is 0% and for Sarah Farrant is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Indira Barker: 74%, Sarah Farrant: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Indira Barker: 50%, Sarah Farrant: 37%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sarah Farrant: 189, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Indira Barker: 927, level confidence: 50%. Notes
|