Kristian Richards v Ewan Joyce (Sat 07 Jan 2012)

Match won by Ewan Joyce. Result: 3-11,10-12,2-11.

Starting level for Kristian Richards: 133, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Ewan Joyce: 5,986, level confidence: 10%.
Ewan Joyce to win as he is currently playing 4401% better than Kristian Richards.

Ewan Joyce won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ewan Joyce played 127% better than Kristian Richards in this match.

No results for Ewan Joyce for more than 12 months before this junior event (Avon Junior Closed) so assume an estimated 6% increase since then.

No results for Kristian Richards for more than 13 months before this junior event (Avon Junior Closed) so assume an estimated 47% increase since then.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ewan Joyce was taking it easy by anything up to 81%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 234 and 6,317 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ewan Joyce played at level 734 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ewan Joyce would normally have been playing at level 1,216 (based on typical behaviour), Kristian Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 66%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ewan Joyce changes to 0% and Kristian Richards changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ewan Joyce becomes 0% and for Kristian Richards becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Avon Junior Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ewan Joyce: 32%, Kristian Richards: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ewan Joyce: 10%, Kristian Richards: 10%.

Final level for Kristian Richards: 206, level confidence: 10%.
Final level for Ewan Joyce: 6,317, level confidence: 10%.

Notes

• This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
• A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
• Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results - though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
• Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above if this applies to this match.
• The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added weight to the more important matches.
• There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which are not covered here.
• You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better than expected against your opponent.
• We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
• For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file here.
• If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated, please contact us. We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been answered on the help page. We are unable to answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points. Or just be incredibly talented!