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Login: | Explaining level changesBen Lawes v Adam Connell (Sat 07 Jan 2012)Match won by Ben Lawes. Result: 11-0,11-2,11-0.Starting level for Ben Lawes: 2,131, level confidence: 17%. Starting level for Adam Connell: 1,255, level confidence: 26%. Ben Lawes to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Adam Connell. Ben Lawes won all of the games and 94% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Lawes played 1000% better than Adam Connell in this match. No results for Ben Lawes for more than 12 months before this junior event (Avon Junior Closed) so assume an estimated 17% increase since then. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Lawes actually played at a level of 6,330 and Adam Connell at a level of 493. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 155% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 105% and 105% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Lawes changes to +105% and Adam Connell changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Lawes becomes +30.7% and for Adam Connell becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Avon Junior Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Lawes is limited to +12% and Adam Connell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Lawes: 32%, Adam Connell: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Lawes: 12%, Adam Connell: 20%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Lawes: 2,731, level confidence: 12%. Final level for Adam Connell: 1,195, level confidence: 20%. Notes
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