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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Westbury David Lloyd Exiles v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 03 Nov 2010)Match played between Ricky Shackle (home) and Courtney-Finn Burrow (away).Match won by Ricky Shackle. Result: 9-0,9-5,9-2. Starting level for Ricky Shackle: 1,240, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Courtney-Finn Burrow: 497, level confidence: 10%. Ricky Shackle to win as he is currently playing 149% better than Courtney-Finn Burrow. Ricky Shackle won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Shackle played 97% better than Courtney-Finn Burrow in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ricky Shackle was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 781 and 1,240 without affecting his level. In this case, Ricky Shackle played at level 994 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ricky Shackle would normally have been playing at level 1,010 (based on typical behaviour), Courtney-Finn Burrow played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Shackle changes to 0% and Courtney-Finn Burrow changes to +1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Shackle becomes 0% and for Courtney-Finn Burrow becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2010' so the adjustment for Ricky Shackle is 0% and for Courtney-Finn Burrow is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Shackle: 78%, Courtney-Finn Burrow: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Shackle: 69%, Courtney-Finn Burrow: 28%. A final adjustment of -2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ricky Shackle: 1,243, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Courtney-Finn Burrow: 476, level confidence: 28%. Notes
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