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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision1: Redland Z v Kingsdown (Thu 28 Jun 2012)Match played between Catherine Thompson (home) and Sandra Newth (away).Match won by Catherine Thompson. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Catherine Thompson: 256, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Sandra Newth: 267, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Sandra Newth to win as she is currently playing 4% better than Catherine Thompson. Catherine Thompson won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Catherine Thompson played 164% better than Sandra Newth in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Catherine Thompson actually played at a level of 425 and Sandra Newth at a level of 161. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 66% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Catherine Thompson changes to +64% and Sandra Newth changes to -59%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Catherine Thompson becomes +30% and for Sandra Newth becomes -28%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Womens Summer 2012' so the adjustment for Catherine Thompson is +20% and for Sandra Newth is -17%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Catherine Thompson is limited to +10% and Sandra Newth is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Catherine Thompson: 91%, Sandra Newth: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Catherine Thompson: 55%, Sandra Newth: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Catherine Thompson: 281, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Sandra Newth: 254, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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