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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision1: Thornbury v Thornbury (Thu 14 Jun 2012)Match played between Jo Spicer (home) and Carol-Anne Norman (away).Match won by Jo Spicer. Result: 9-4,9-2,9-5:9-5,9-3,9-3:9-5,9-2,9-1. Starting level for Jo Spicer: 589, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Carol-Anne Norman: 273, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Jo Spicer to win as she is currently playing 116% better than Carol-Anne Norman. Jo Spicer won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jo Spicer played 57% better than Carol-Anne Norman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jo Spicer was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 409 and 589 without affecting her level. In this case, Jo Spicer played at level 465 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jo Spicer would normally have been playing at level 504 (based on typical behaviour), Carol-Anne Norman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jo Spicer changes to 0% and Carol-Anne Norman changes to +0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jo Spicer becomes 0% and for Carol-Anne Norman becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Womens Summer 2012' so the adjustment for Jo Spicer is 0% and for Carol-Anne Norman is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jo Spicer: 32%, Carol-Anne Norman: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jo Spicer: 27%, Carol-Anne Norman: 74%. A final adjustment of -25.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jo Spicer: 381, level confidence: 27%. Final level for Carol-Anne Norman: 270, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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