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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 04 Jul 2012)Match played between Malcolm Mason (home) and Tessa Harris (away).Match won by Malcolm Mason. Result: 15-6,7-15,15-12,15-10. Starting level for Malcolm Mason: 1,674, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Tessa Harris: 812, level confidence: 60%. Malcolm Mason to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Tessa Harris. Malcolm Mason won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Mason played 24% better than Tessa Harris in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Malcolm Mason was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,200 and 1,674 without affecting his level. As Malcolm Mason has played below his allowed range at 1,098, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Malcolm Mason would normally have been playing at level 1,453 (based on typical behaviour), Tessa Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Mason changes to -5.2% and Tessa Harris changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Mason becomes -3.4% and for Tessa Harris becomes +8.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2012' so the adjustment for Malcolm Mason is -2.2% and for Tessa Harris is +5.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Mason: 86%, Tessa Harris: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Mason: 67%, Tessa Harris: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Malcolm Mason: 1,662, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Tessa Harris: 855, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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