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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury A v BAWA A (Wed 15 Aug 2012)Match played between Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith (home) and Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins (away).Match won by Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith. Result: 15-11,15-11,17-14. Starting level for Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith: 1,385, level confidence: 27%. Starting level for Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins: 916, level confidence: 30%. Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins. Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith played 39% better than Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins in this match. In this case, Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith played at level 1,293 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith would normally have been playing at level 1,316 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith changes to 0% and Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith becomes 0% and for Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins becomes +1.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2012' so the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith is 0% and for Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith: 52%, Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith: 50%, Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins: 52%. Final level for Ewan Davies- Smith/Calum Davies Smith: 1,385, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Neil Bridle/Keith Judkins: 925, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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