|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 07 Mar 2013)Match played between Viv Busby (home) and Daryl Williams (away).Match won by Daryl Williams. Result: 6-9,2-9,1-9. Starting level for Viv Busby: 397, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Daryl Williams: 818, level confidence: 51%. Daryl Williams to win as she is currently playing 106% better than Viv Busby. Daryl Williams won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Williams played 76% better than Viv Busby in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Williams was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 595 and 818 without affecting her level. In this case, Daryl Williams played at level 704 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Williams would normally have been playing at level 710 (based on typical behaviour), Viv Busby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Williams changes to 0% and Viv Busby changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Williams becomes 0% and for Viv Busby becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Daryl Williams is 0% and for Viv Busby is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Williams: 71%, Viv Busby: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Williams: 66%, Viv Busby: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Viv Busby: 398, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Daryl Williams: 817, level confidence: 66%. Notes
|