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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Kingsdown (Thu 29 Nov 2012)Match played between Sally Higham (home) and Kathryn Atherton (away).Match won by Sally Higham. Result: 9-2,10-8,9-2. Starting level for Sally Higham: 412, level confidence: 38%. Starting level for Kathryn Atherton: 201, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Sally Higham to win as she is currently playing 105% better than Kathryn Atherton. Sally Higham won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 55% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sally Higham played 55% better than Kathryn Atherton in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sally Higham was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 301 and 412 without affecting her level. In this case, Sally Higham played at level 334 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sally Higham would normally have been playing at level 358 (based on typical behaviour), Kathryn Atherton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sally Higham changes to 0% and Kathryn Atherton changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sally Higham becomes 0% and for Kathryn Atherton becomes +2.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Sally Higham is 0% and for Kathryn Atherton is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sally Higham: 62%, Kathryn Atherton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sally Higham: 54%, Kathryn Atherton: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sally Higham: 411, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Kathryn Atherton: 205, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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