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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v Lansdown A (Thu 28 Feb 2013)Match played between Naomi Zetter (home) and Viv Busby (away).Match won by Viv Busby. Result: 1-9,0-9,9-3,2-9. Starting level for Naomi Zetter: 201, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Viv Busby: 399, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Viv Busby to win as she is currently playing 99% better than Naomi Zetter. Viv Busby won 75% of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Viv Busby played 36% better than Naomi Zetter in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Viv Busby was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 299 and 399 without affecting her level. As Viv Busby has played below her allowed range at 286, her level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Viv Busby would normally have been playing at level 351 (based on typical behaviour), Naomi Zetter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 9.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Viv Busby changes to -0.4% and Naomi Zetter changes to +9.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Viv Busby becomes -0.4% and for Naomi Zetter becomes +6.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Viv Busby is 0% and for Naomi Zetter is +4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Viv Busby: 90%, Naomi Zetter: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Viv Busby: 74%, Naomi Zetter: 26%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Naomi Zetter: 210, level confidence: 26%. Final level for Viv Busby: 397, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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