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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v Kingsdown (Thu 22 Nov 2012)Match played between Caroline Moore (home) and Wij Wight (away).Match won by Caroline Moore. Result: 9-1,9-3,9-4. Starting level for Caroline Moore: 681, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Wij Wight: 183, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Caroline Moore to win as she is currently playing 272% better than Wij Wight. Caroline Moore won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Caroline Moore played 86% better than Wij Wight in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Caroline Moore was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 288 and 681 without affecting her level. In this case, Caroline Moore played at level 398 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Caroline Moore would normally have been playing at level 464 (based on typical behaviour), Wij Wight played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Caroline Moore changes to 0% and Wij Wight changes to +7.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Caroline Moore becomes 0% and for Wij Wight becomes +5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Caroline Moore is 0% and for Wij Wight is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Caroline Moore: 81%, Wij Wight: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Caroline Moore: 57%, Wij Wight: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Caroline Moore: 680, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Wij Wight: 190, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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