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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 18 Oct 2012)Match played between Sally Higham (home) and Karen De Klerk (away).Match won by Karen De Klerk. Result: 7-9,5-9,4-9. Starting level for Sally Higham: 392, level confidence: 33%. Starting level for Karen De Klerk: 884, level confidence: 53%. Karen De Klerk to win as she is currently playing 126% better than Sally Higham. Karen De Klerk won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karen De Klerk played 40% better than Sally Higham in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Karen De Klerk was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 603 and 884 without affecting her level. As Karen De Klerk has played below her allowed range at 574, her level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Karen De Klerk would normally have been playing at level 746 (based on typical behaviour), Sally Higham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 10.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karen De Klerk changes to -2% and Sally Higham changes to +10.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karen De Klerk becomes -2% and for Sally Higham becomes +6.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Karen De Klerk is -1.5% and for Sally Higham is +5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karen De Klerk: 73%, Sally Higham: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karen De Klerk: 58%, Sally Higham: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sally Higham: 412, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Karen De Klerk: 870, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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