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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Lansdown 7 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 19 Dec 2012)Match played between Charlie Samler (home) and Eric Page (away).Match won by Eric Page. Result: 1-9,0-9,2-9. Starting level for Charlie Samler: 1,003, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Eric Page: 1,732, level confidence: 59%. Eric Page to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Charlie Samler. Eric Page won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Page played 209% better than Charlie Samler in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eric Page actually played at a level of 2,317 and Charlie Samler at a level of 750. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Page changes to +25% and Charlie Samler changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Page becomes +10.7% and for Charlie Samler becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Eric Page is +8% and for Charlie Samler is -9.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charlie Samler is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Page: 77%, Charlie Samler: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Page: 58%, Charlie Samler: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Samler: 955, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Eric Page: 1,869, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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