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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Lansdown 7 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 19 Dec 2012)Match played between Julian Browning (home) and Malcolm Mason (away).Match won by Malcolm Mason. Result: 5-9,0-9,3-9. Starting level for Julian Browning: 788, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Malcolm Mason: 1,728, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Malcolm Mason to win as he is currently playing 119% better than Julian Browning. Malcolm Mason won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Mason played 86% better than Julian Browning in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Malcolm Mason was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,203 and 1,728 without affecting his level. In this case, Malcolm Mason played at level 1,468 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Julian Browning is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Mason changes to 0% and Julian Browning changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Mason becomes 0% and for Julian Browning becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Malcolm Mason is 0% and for Julian Browning is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Mason: 90%, Julian Browning: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Mason: 83%, Julian Browning: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Julian Browning: 788, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Malcolm Mason: 1,727, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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