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Login: | Explaining level changesDivison 3A: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bristol Fresh (Tue 30 Oct 2012)Match played between Unknown Player (home) and Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb (away).Match won by Unknown Player. Result: 9-3,9-7,9-4. Starting level for Unknown Player: 691, level confidence: 20%. Starting level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 436, level confidence: 40%. Unknown Player to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb. Unknown Player won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Unknown Player played 46% better than Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb in this match. In this case, Unknown Player played at level 642 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Unknown Player would normally have been playing at level 650 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Unknown Player changes to 0% and Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb changes to +0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Unknown Player becomes 0% and for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2012' so the adjustment for Unknown Player is 0% and for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Unknown Player: 45%, Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Unknown Player: 43%, Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 61%. A final adjustment of +4.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Unknown Player: 693, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 475, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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