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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Weston v Weston A (Thu 08 Feb 2007)Match played between Viv Barber (home) and Sarah Barber (away).Match won by Sarah Barber. Result: 9-6,9-6,9-10,7-9,6-9. Starting level for Viv Barber: 178, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Sarah Barber: 121, level confidence: 54%. Viv Barber to win as she is currently playing 47% better than Sarah Barber. Sarah Barber won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 0% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah Barber played 8% better than Viv Barber in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah Barber actually played at a level of 152 and Viv Barber at a level of 142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah Barber changes to +21% and Viv Barber changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah Barber becomes +11.5% and for Viv Barber becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2006-7' so the adjustment for Sarah Barber is +8.7% and for Viv Barber is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Viv Barber is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah Barber: 73%, Viv Barber: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah Barber: 58%, Viv Barber: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Viv Barber: 169, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Sarah Barber: 131, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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